India's Growing Outreach to the Taliban: A New Regional Geopolitics
India, in recent times, has taken some serious strides to move ahead with the Taliban. The move has been part of protecting India's security and national interests in a region beset by changes and challenges. The Taliban had shown keen interest in establishing better links with India ever since they captured Afghanistan last August 2021.
This article examines why India has chosen to join forces with the Taliban, what obliges such a decision, and where that moves within the greater frame of regional geopolitics.
Why is India Engaging with the Taliban?
A number of fundamental reasons underpin India's decision to reach out to the Taliban.
Pakistan's Changing Relationship with the Taliban:
Pakistan was once a very strong ally of the Taliban, but ultimately it came to be at odds with them. Relations have worsened after Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan led to civilian casualties. A gap has been created in their relationship, which India sees as an opportunity to strengthen their ties with the Taliban.
Iran's Reduced Influence:
The Islamic Republic of Iran has been engrossed in a set of its own regional troubles, conflicts in the Middle East with Iran proxies primarily, as also a backlash from Israel's attacks. Naturally, it has weakened the ability of Iran to affect Afghan affairs. Certainly, an Iranian distracted means the regional role of India is becoming increasingly significant.
The Shift of Russia's Focus:
Russia, which was once severely critical of the Taliban, softened its stance: Putin now saw them as allies in the war on terrorism. But for the most part, Russia is preoccupied with the conflict in Ukraine and does not have many chips to pitch in Afghanistan either. This gives India yet another window.
China's Growing Role:
China has been actively reaching out to Afghanistan through the sending of ambassadors, starting development projects, and exploring Afghanistan's rich natural resources. The Taliban welcomed China's support, especially as Western nations have retreated. This growing Chinese influence is a cause for concern for India. India is keeping a close watch on China's Belt and Road Initiative, which now includes projects in Afghanistan.
The Role of the United States:
US policies on Afghanistan continues to remain one of the critical determinants. The previous administration of Donald Trump initiated direct talks with the Taliban and went ahead to withdraw US troops. If Donald Trump makes it back to the White House again, US policy might change and, in its wake, modify India's response. The recent Indian outreach toward the Taliban, by the same token, suggests India's preparedness for a policy shift in Washington.
Key Players and Factors in India-Taliban Relations
Following are some of the influential persons and incidents that have helped in the development of the relationship between India and the Taliban:
- Deepak Mittal: The Indian ambassador who, for the first time, met Taliban representatives in Qatar.
- Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanikzai: Senior Taliban leader, former cadet of the Indian Military Academy, and major facilitator of discussions with India.
- Vikram Misri: The Indian foreign secretary who has just concluded meetings with Taliban representatives in Dubai.
- Chabahar Port: This strategic Iranian port has opened up a trade route for India with Afghanistan through Iranian territory, bypassing Pakistan altogether.
- ISKP: Known as the Islamic State Khorasan Province, a terrorist organization operating in Afghanistan and considered a severe security threat to India.
Humanitarian Aid and Development Support
India has conventionally supported the development of Afghanistan. In the last two decades, India has invested almost USD 3 billion in various projects in Afghanistan, such as road construction, schools, and hospitals. Despite the highly contentious governance of the Taliban, India has continued its humanitarian efforts. For instance, India has sent food and medicine, among other essentials, to Afghanistan during its recent economic and humanitarian crises. The Taliban, in turn, have welcomed the gesture. At stake for India, by continuing all these development projects, is goodwill among Afghans that will sustain its influence within Afghanistan.
Security Concerns
The biggest headache for India is terrorism. It wants to make sure that Afghanistan does not become a base for terrorist activities that threaten India. Groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Province are a big concern. The Taliban has reassured India that they will not allow Afghan soil to be used against India. However, such assurances are taken with a pinch of salt. Ensuring the safety of Indian investments, personnel, and interests in Afghanistan remains paramount.
The Broader Geopolitical Landscape
The geopolitical landscape of Afghanistan is not simple, with the influence of several countries:
China's Growing Influence:
China is extending its presence quickly within Afghanistan: several development projects there have been advanced with demands for access to Afghanistan's rare resources. The Afghan Taliban welcomes these; again pitting it in contrast to withdrawals by Western allies. This turns out to be an ominous affair for India and its quest at containing China from shaping the region accordingly.Russia's Changing Role:
Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, Russia has scaled down its activities in Afghanistan. Yet, it has shown its readiness to cooperate with the Taliban. That is a U-turn in Russia's position: until now, Russia included the Taliban in the list of terrorist organizations.Policies of the United States:
The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has dramatically altered the regional power play. India is closely watching every US move, especially if there is a policy turnaround with the likelihood of a change of guard in Washington.Pakistan-Taliban Tensions:
Deteriorating relations between the Taliban and Pakistan have created many opportunities for the strengthening of bilateral relations between the Taliban and India. The recently conducted airstrikes inside Afghan borders have only widened their rift.
Conclusion: A Multidisciplinary Approach
India's engagement with the Taliban is not a mere diplomacy; it is a well-planned strategy to secure its interests in a changing region. Focusing on humanitarian aid, development, and security, India tries to retain its influence in Afghanistan amidst challenges thrown up by other regional players like China and Pakistan.
At the same time, India is circumspect: transitions in style and substance in governance, assurances that the Taliban have given. As India increases involvement in Afghanistan, it is likely to be one of the main players in its future. Indeed, this path ahead has pitfalls, yet, in many ways, the proactivity of India's approach might become a game-changer in the long term.